Geopolitical Risk Analysis

Overview

Quantify geopolitical risk signals, identify crisis precursors, and build event-driven strategies that convert narratives such as "war / conflict / sanctions / supply disruption" into actionable multi-asset allocation decisions.

Core Analytical Framework

1. Risk Layering Model

Layer 1: Structural risk (long-lasting, slow-moving)
  └── Great-power rivalry, alliance structures, nuclear deterrence balance

Layer 2: Situational risk (cyclical escalation, monthly / quarterly scale)
  └── Military exercises, election cycles, sanctions escalation, diplomatic friction