us-etf-flow
Installation
SKILL.md
US ETF Flow & Sector Breadth Analysis
Overview
Track capital flows through US ETFs to identify institutional positioning, sector rotation trends, and risk appetite shifts. ETF flows are a real-time proxy for institutional capital allocation — unlike 13F filings (45-day lag), ETF creation/redemption data is available daily.
Core Concepts
1. ETF Flow Mechanics
Creation / Redemption process:
- Inflows (creation): Authorized Participants (APs) deliver baskets of underlying securities to the ETF issuer → receive new ETF shares → sell on exchange. This happens when ETF trades at a premium to NAV.
- Outflows (redemption): APs buy ETF shares on exchange → redeem with issuer for underlying securities → sell securities. This happens when ETF trades at a discount to NAV.
- Signal interpretation: sustained large inflows = institutional demand; sustained large outflows = institutional liquidation.
Key distinction:
- ETF price movement ≠ ETF flow. Price can rise on low volume (momentum). Flows require actual capital commitment.
- Flows are a quantity signal (how much money is moving), not a price signal.