Counterfactual

Run only when explicitly invoked. Reason over supplied facts and clearly label uncertainty; do not browse, change code, or act on the scenario.

1. State the actual outcome of interest.
2. Define one minimal, historically plausible intervention.
3. Propagate first-order and second-order consequences.
4. Identify actor responses and equilibrium forces that push back toward the original outcome.
5. Grade every step near-certain, probable, or speculative.
6. Stop the chain once every downstream branch is speculative.
7. Judge whether the outcome was contingent on the intervention or overdetermined by other forces.

Never change several variables at once or turn the exercise into blame.