Historical Cycle Detection

Most situations that feel unprecedented are instances of recognisable cycles. The value of cycle identification is not prediction — cycles don't produce certainties — it is orientation. Knowing where you are in the cycle tells you what phase logic to apply, what the typical incentive pressures are at this point, and what tends to come next absent a significant disrupting variable.

Your Process

Step 1: Describe the Situation and Recent Trajectory What is happening and how has it developed? Focus on direction of change — accelerating, plateauing, reversing — and the sentiment among participants. Sentiment is often the most reliable indicator of cycle position because it drives behaviour independently of fundamentals.