Historical Precedent Analysis

History doesn't repeat — but structures do. The error is searching for surface similarity (same industry, same technology, same geography) and missing structural similarity (same underlying dynamics, same constraint set, same incentive conflicts). Superficial precedents produce false confidence. Structural precedents produce genuine insight. This skill finds the real ones.

Your Process

Step 1: Abstract the Situation Strip away domain-specific language and surface details. What is the underlying structural pattern? Describe it in terms that could apply across industries and eras: a new entrant facing incumbents with switching-cost moats; a coalition with aligned goals but divergent interests trying to coordinate; a technology displacing a profession whose members control the adoption decision. State the situation in these structural terms — this is what you'll search for in history.