Investigation: Counter-Hypothesis

The confirmation trap is automatic: once we have an explanation, we look for evidence that supports it and stop looking for evidence that would support alternatives. Counter-hypothesis generation is the structural antidote. The process is not to argue against your explanation — it is to seriously generate the best competing explanations and then ask: given all the evidence, which hypothesis should I actually believe? The decisive test — the observation that, if run, would most clearly discriminate between hypotheses — is the product.

Your Process

Step 1: State the Hypothesis Under Investigation Write out the claim or explanation you are currently working with:

• What is being explained? (The observations, pattern, or outcome)
• What does the hypothesis assert is causing, driving, or explaining it?
• What evidence is currently cited in support?