s4h-probability
Installation
SKILL.md
Probability
Applies probabilistic thinking to estimates, decisions, and uncertainty. Diagnoses what kind of probability work is needed and applies the right tool.
Which tool fits
| You need to... | Tool |
|---|---|
| Anchor estimates in historical base rates before adjusting | base-rate-anchoring |
| Test whether stated confidence matches available evidence | confidence-calibration |
| Calculate expected value to compare options under uncertainty | expected-value-calculation |
| Assign probabilities to distinct scenarios before deciding | scenario-weighting |