Probability Base Rate Anchoring

The most common forecasting error is treating every situation as unique and ignoring what usually happens. Kahneman called this neglecting the outside view. Before adjusting for what makes this situation special, you must first establish what happens in situations like this one. The base rate is the outside view — the answer to "what fraction of attempts like this one succeed?" — and it is almost always more informative than inside-view reasoning about this particular case.

Your Process

Step 1: State the Prediction or Estimate Name the specific outcome being predicted and the current estimate or intuition. What is being forecast and at what implied probability?

Framing check: Confirm the specific prediction before continuing. State what you've identified — the outcome being forecast, the current intuitive estimate, and the time horizon — in one sentence, then use AskUserQuestion:

• Question: "I'm reading this as: [your one-sentence framing of the prediction and implied probability]. Is that right?"
• Header: "Framing"
• Options:
  • Yes — proceed — framing is correct
  • Adjust — one element is off; user will correct it before you continue
  • Reframe — different situation than read; incorporate the correction before proceeding