Probability Expected Value Calculation

Expected value is the correct framework for comparing options under uncertainty. It multiplies each outcome's value by its probability and sums across all outcomes, producing a single number that accounts for the full distribution rather than just the most likely case. EV analysis forces explicitness about both probabilities and values — and it exposes asymmetric risk that intuition misses. One important constraint: EV math is overridden when any outcome is catastrophic enough to be unacceptable regardless of probability.

Your Process

Step 1: Define the Options List the options being compared. Include "do nothing" or "wait" as explicit options — they have EVs too.

Framing check: Confirm the specific decision and its options before continuing. State what you've identified — the actual choice being evaluated, the options in play, and the unit of value — in one sentence, then use AskUserQuestion:

• Question: "I'm reading this as: [your one-sentence framing of the decision, its options, and what success/failure looks like]. Is that right?"
• Header: "Framing"
• Options:
  • Yes — proceed — framing is correct
  • Adjust — one element is off; user will correct it before you continue
  • Reframe — different situation than read; incorporate the correction before proceeding