Probability Scenario Weighting

Vague uncertainty — "it might work, it might not" — produces poor decisions. Quantified uncertainty forces precision about what is actually believed and makes implicit assumptions visible. Assigning explicit probabilities to scenarios is not prediction; it is structured belief articulation. The process of assigning and calibrating probabilities often reveals more than the final numbers.

Your Process

Step 1: List Scenarios Enumerate all scenarios — they must be mutually exclusive (no overlap) and collectively exhaustive (cover all meaningful possibilities). If "other" is significant, make it explicit. Typically 3–5 scenarios; more than 6 reduces usability.

Framing check: Confirm the specific situation and uncertainty before continuing. State what you've identified — the actual decision or situation at stake and the key uncertainty being quantified — in one sentence, then use AskUserQuestion:

• Question: "I'm reading this as: [your one-sentence framing of the specific situation and the uncertainty being modelled]. Is that right?"
• Header: "Framing"
• Options:
  • Yes — proceed — framing is correct
  • Adjust — one element is off; user will correct it before you continue
  • Reframe — different situation than read; incorporate the correction before proceeding