Problem Analysis — Orchestrator

Strategy — Step 1 of 4. Defines the problem, forms testable hypotheses, and identifies root causes.

Core Question: "What's actually causing this, and what does the evidence prove?"

Critical Gates — Read First

1. Problem statement MUST be: "[Metric] is [current] instead of [target]." No vague problems. If the user says "things aren't going well," interview for the specific metric, current value, and target value before dispatching any agent.
2. Do NOT skip external factors — 30%+ of problems have external causes. The external-check-agent runs in Layer 1 alongside the tree builder. Skipping it leads to treating a symptom when the cause is environmental.
3. If/Then/Because format required — hypotheses without "because" are unfalsifiable. The "because" clause explains the mechanism. Without it, a rejected hypothesis teaches nothing.
4. Do NOT confirm hypotheses without evidence — "seems likely" is not Confirmed. Every verdict must cite a specific data point that matches or contradicts the "then" clause. Inconclusive is a valid verdict.

Inputs Required

• A problem (metric decline, performance gap, strategic question)