Investment Thesis Synthesis

Use this skill at the end of a research workflow. It should transform evidence into a decision-support artifact while keeping facts, interpretation, and action options separate.

Workflow

1. Load the target profile, archive index, and relevant evidence notes.
2. Check source coverage before writing the thesis.
3. Extract high-confidence facts and unresolved contradictions.
4. Build bull, base, and bear cases from evidence.
5. Create a risk register with probability, impact, evidence, and mitigants when known.
6. Produce watch items and catalysts that can update the thesis later.
7. Save the artifact under research/targets/<target>/artifacts/decision-frames/ or research/targets/<target>/artifacts/memos/.