Real Options Analysis (실물옵션 분석)

"In an uncertain world, the value of being able to change your mind is enormous."

1. Why NPV Alone Fails — The "Now or Never" Fallacy (전통 NPV의 한계)

Traditional Net Present Value (NPV) analysis assumes a binary, irreversible decision: invest now or never. This "now or never" framing systematically undervalues investments in uncertain environments because it:

• Ignores the value of waiting — new information arrives over time that can improve decisions
• Treats uncertainty as purely negative — higher discount rates penalize uncertain projects, when uncertainty can actually create upside
• Assumes passive management — managers are modeled as automatons who cannot adapt, pivot, or abandon
• Forces a single scenario — collapses a distribution of outcomes into one expected cash flow

The core insight: When you have the right but not the obligation to take future action, uncertainty increases value rather than destroying it. This is identical to how financial options work — a call option becomes more valuable as volatility rises.

NPV says: "This project has negative expected value. Don't invest." Real Options says: "This project has negative expected value if you commit fully today. But a small pilot investment buys you the option to expand if conditions improve — and that option has significant value."