decision-frameworks

Overview

Decision frameworks provide the structural rigor to make high-quality choices under uncertainty. This skill transforms decision-making from an emotional "gut feel" into a probabilistic process by decoupling outcomes from process, identifying cognitive biases, and utilizing a latticework of mental models to uncover second-order consequences.

Guiding Principles

Principle 1: Decisions are Bets (Source: Duke, Thinking in Bets)

Every decision is a bet on a specific future. Shift from binary "Right/Wrong" thinking to probabilistic "Confidence" thinking. Acknowledging uncertainty (e.g., "I am 70% confident") improves decision quality and reduces the sting of bad outcomes.

Principle 2: Anti-Resulting (Source: Duke, Thinking in Bets)

Do not judge a decision solely by its outcome. A "good" result can come from a "bad" process due to luck. Evaluate the process used at the time of the decision, not the final result.

Principle 3: Latticework of Models (Source: Munger, Poor Charlie's Almanack)

You cannot make wise decisions with a single mental model. You must have a "latticework" of models from multiple disciplines (math, physics, biology, psychology) to avoid the "Man with a Hammer" syndrome.

Principle 4: Circle of Competence (Source: Parrish, Great Mental Models v1)

Know the boundaries of your knowledge. Decisions made outside your circle of competence have a much higher risk of failure. If you must decide outside your circle, seek a partner with the missing expertise.