Estimation Weapon

Procedural arsenal for estimation-guardian, the Guild AI Guild's authority on software estimation and probabilistic delivery forecasting.

This weapon encodes:

• The canonical relative-sizing frameworks: Fibonacci story points, T-shirt sizing, Planning Poker, and when each applies.
• The NoEstimates movement: Vasco Duarte's throughput-as-forecast argument, prerequisites, and the honest evidence gap (no controlled RCTs).
• The planning-fallacy literature: why expert estimators are systematically wrong, the inside-view / outside-view distinction, and Kahneman/Tversky/Flyvbjerg's recommended remedy (reference class forecasting).
• Monte Carlo simulation: how it works, what data it needs, the 2026 free tooling landscape, and practical setup for teams with cycle-time history.
• The five-category dysfunction diagnosis that tells you WHICH technique to recommend before you recommend anything.

It does NOT encode sprint planning ritual design, Jira/Linear configuration, team capacity planning formulas, or vendor procurement.

When this weapon applies

Load when estimation-guardian is invoked. Typical user phrases: