伊索三问 / 内在价值评估

R — 原文 (Reading)

"The oracle was Aesop and his enduring, though somewhat incomplete, investment insight was 'a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.' To flesh out this principle, you must answer only three questions: How certain are you that there are indeed birds in the bush? When will they emerge and how many will there be? What is the risk-free interest rate?"

— Warren Buffett, 2000年信

I — 方法论骨架 (Interpretation)

伊索三问是一个通用估值框架，适用于任何资产——农场、股票、债券、彩票、石油井：

1. 确定性（鸟真的在吗？）: 你有多大把握这个资产会产生未来现金流？证据是什么？
2. 时间与数量（何时出现？有多少？）: 现金流什么时候来？来多少？持续多久？
3. 折现率（无风险利率是多少？）: 今天的$1和未来的$1价值不同——用无风险利率折现