Market Validation (Android)

Quick-and-dirty market sizing before committing 3 months to build.

The 30-minute estimate

Step 1: TAM (top-down)

Play Store category install count. Example:

• "Habit Tracker" → ~50M cumulative installs across top 50 apps
• That's your TAM upper bound

Step 2: SAM (Serviceable)

What fraction speak your supported languages + are in your target countries?

• Top 50 install spread: India 30%, US 15%, Brazil 10%, rest 45%
• If you ship en+hi+pt → SAM = 55% of TAM

Step 3: SOM (Reachable in 12 months)

• New indie app realistic ceiling: 0.5-2% of SAM in year 1
• 50M × 55% × 1% = 275k installs (year 1, ambitious)