Skill (Orchestrator)
├── Phase 1: Preparation
│   ├── Headline parsing (keywords, entities, actions, numbers)
│   ├── Event classification
│   └── Load references
├── Phase 2: Analysis
│   ├── Collect related news (past 2 weeks via WebSearch)
│   ├── Build 3 scenarios (Base/Bull/Bear, probabilities sum to 100%)
│   ├── Map 1°/2°/3° sector impacts
│   └── Identify 3-5 positive + 3-5 negative impact stocks
└── Phase 3: Report Generation
    ├── Compile findings
    ├── Assess scenario probability distribution
    └── Save report

Event Classification

Classify the headline into one of these categories:

Category	Indian Context Examples
Monetary Policy	RBI rate decision, CRR/SLR change, liquidity measures
Fiscal Policy	Union Budget, GST changes, PLI schemes, disinvestment
Geopolitical	India-China border, India-Pakistan, Russia-Ukraine, Middle East
Commodity	Crude oil shock, gold prices, metal tariffs, food inflation
Regulatory	SEBI rules, RBI NPA norms, telecom spectrum, pharma FDA
Corporate	Major M&A, earnings surprise, promoter pledging, fraud
Global Macro	Fed rate decision, US recession, China slowdown, tariffs
Weather/Agriculture	Monsoon forecast, crop damage, food prices
Elections/Political	State elections, central govt policy shifts

Workflow

Phase 1: Preparation

Parse the Headline
- Extract key entities (companies, sectors, countries, institutions)
- Identify the action (increase, decrease, ban, approve, delay)
- Note any numbers (rate changes, ₹ amounts, percentages)
- Classify the event type

Load References

Read: references/headline_event_patterns.md
Read: references/sector_sensitivity_matrix.md
Read: references/scenario_playbooks.md

Phase 2: Analysis

Collect Context
- Use WebSearch to find related news from the past 2 weeks
- Identify any pre-existing trends or expectations
- Note market's initial reaction if available
Build 3 Scenarios

For each scenario:
- Name: Descriptive title
- Probability: Must sum to 100% across all 3
- Timeline: 3 phases (0-6 months, 6-12 months, 12-18 months)
- Description: What unfolds in each phase
- Key Assumptions: What must hold true
Typical structure:
- Base Case (40-55%): Most likely outcome given current trajectory
- Bull Case (20-35%): Optimistic scenario with positive catalysts
- Bear Case (15-30%): Pessimistic scenario with adverse developments

Map Sector Impacts

For each scenario, assess impacts using the sector sensitivity matrix:

Order	Definition	Example (RBI Rate Cut)
1st	Direct, immediate	Banks: NIM compression, Housing: demand boost
2nd	Indirect, 3-6 months	Auto: loan demand, Real estate: prices
3rd	Tertiary, 6-18 months	Cement: construction demand, Durables: consumer spending

Use NSE sectoral indices:

Nifty Bank, Nifty IT, Nifty Pharma, Nifty Auto, Nifty FMCG
Nifty Metal, Nifty Realty, Nifty Energy, Nifty Infra
Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Private Bank, Nifty Financial Services

Identify Stock Impacts

For each scenario:
- 3-5 stocks that benefit most (positive impact)
- 3-5 stocks that suffer most (negative impact)
For each stock, provide:
- Ticker (NSE symbol)
- Current price (use broker MCP get_ltp — Groww or Zerodha Kite — if available)
- Impact channel (why this stock is affected)
- Magnitude estimate (High/Medium/Low)

Phase 3: Report Generation

Generate Report

Save as reports/scenario_analysis_<topic>_YYYYMMDD.md with sections:
1. Related News (5-10 recent articles with sources)
2. Scenario Overview (3 scenarios with probabilities)
3. Timeline (0-6m, 6-12m, 12-18m phases for base case)
4. Sector Impact Matrix (1°/2°/3° impacts per sector)
5. Positive Impact Stocks (3-5 with rationale)
6. Negative Impact Stocks (3-5 with rationale)
7. Investment Implications (actionable takeaways)
8. Risk to Scenarios (what could shift probabilities)
9. Disclaimer

Quality Standards

All probabilities must sum to 100%
Every impact claim must have a causal chain (event → mechanism → impact)
Stock picks must include the impact channel, not just "will benefit"
Consider second-order effects (e.g., rate cut → weak INR → IT sector benefit)
Flag any confirmation bias in scenario construction
Include both sectors that benefit AND those that lose

Example Usage

User: "RBI cuts repo rate by 25 bps to 6%"

Analyst:
1. Classification: Monetary Policy
2. Key entities: RBI, repo rate, 25 bps, 6%
3. Collects recent RBI commentary and market expectations
4. Scenarios:
   - Base (50%): One more cut expected → banks pass on, housing demand rises
   - Bull (30%): Cycle of 75-100 bps cuts → strong credit growth, equity rally
   - Bear (20%): Global inflation returns → RBI pauses → rate-sensitive sell-off
5. 1° impacts: Banks, NBFCs, Housing Finance, Auto
6. 2° impacts: Real Estate, Consumer Durables
7. 3° impacts: Cement, Infrastructure
8. Stock picks: HDFCBANK, BAJFINANCE, GODREJPROP (positive); IT exporters if INR weakens

Resources

references/headline_event_patterns.md

Historical Indian market event patterns and reactions.

references/sector_sensitivity_matrix.md

Event type × NSE sector impact matrix.

references/scenario_playbooks.md

Scenario construction templates with Indian market context.

scenario-analyzer

Scenario Analyzer (India Markets)

Overview

Architecture