scenario-planning

Builds several distinct, plausible futures for a focal question using the 2x2 critical-uncertainties method (Global Business Network / Royal Dutch Shell tradition; Peter Schwartz, The Art of the Long View, 1991). The goal is to prepare for an uncertain future, not to predict which one arrives.

The method, the axis-selection logic, what makes a good axis and a good scenario, how to write signposts, and the pitfalls live in references/scenarios.md. Load that file before starting and follow it exactly.

When to use

The user faces a decision whose right answer depends on an uncertain future and wants to stress-test strategy against several of them rather than a single forecast. The unit of analysis is a focal question tied to a decision-maker and a horizon, not "the future" in the abstract. Scenario planning complements pestel-analysis, which is the natural source of driving forces (its high-impact, high-uncertainty watch list feeds Stage 1 directly), and three-horizons, which sequences moves over time once the scenarios are set. If the user has already run a PESTEL scan, take its forces as input rather than regathering them.

Language

Conduct the session and write the report in the language the user is writing in. The reference file is English; keep the framework and its terms keyed to it regardless of the output language.

Inputs

• FOCAL QUESTION (required): the decision or strategic question, and the entity it concerns. Push for specificity: "what will our market look like" is too loose until tied to a decision-maker and a choice. Narrow it with a question or two if vague.
• HORIZON (optional): how far out to look. Default to a sensible multi-year horizon (five to fifteen years), far enough that today's certainties could break but not so far it turns to fiction.
• CONTEXT (optional): driving forces already known (for example from a prior PESTEL scan), and the decision the scenarios should inform.