adverse-selection-prior
Adverse Selection Prior
Table of Contents
Example
Scenario: We receive a fantasy trade offer. Opponent (classified active archetype) offers us a star hitter (their side) for two of our mid-tier hitters (our side). On surface the offer looks roughly fair -- our own projection model says the deal is +3% EV for us.
Inputs:
offer_type:tradeproposer_archetype:activeoffer_symmetry_score: 72 (looks fair-to-slightly-favorable for us)proposer_info_asymmetry: 55 (moderate -- we do not have closer news that they might have, but no public bombshell either)
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