Adverse Selection Prior

Table of Contents

• Example
• Workflow
• Common Patterns
• Guardrails
• Quick Reference

Example

Scenario: We receive a fantasy trade offer. Opponent (classified active archetype) offers us a star hitter (their side) for two of our mid-tier hitters (our side). On surface the offer looks roughly fair -- our own projection model says the deal is +3% EV for us.

Inputs:

• offer_type: trade
• proposer_archetype: active
• offer_symmetry_score: 72 (looks fair-to-slightly-favorable for us)
• proposer_info_asymmetry: 55 (moderate -- we do not have closer news that they might have, but no public bombshell either)