information-architecture
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visualization-choice-reporting
Matches visualization types to data questions and creates narrated reports that highlight insights and recommend actions. Covers chart selection (comparison, trend, distribution, relationship, composition, geographic), perceptual best practices, and narrative reporting (headline, pattern, context, meaning, action). Use when analyzing data for patterns, building dashboards, presenting metrics, monitoring KPIs, or when user mentions "visualize this", "what chart should I use", "create a dashboard", "analyze this data", "show trends", "report on".
89auction-winners-curse-haircut
Applies a Bayesian haircut to a bid valuation for common-value auctions where winning is itself evidence the bidder over-estimated. Takes a raw valuation, a value-type classification (common_value / private_value / mixed), the number of informed bidders N, and a signal-dispersion estimate, and returns an adjusted valuation. Domain-neutral and reusable across fantasy FAAB, prediction markets, M&A bids, ad-auction budgets, and any generic bidding context. Use when user mentions "winner's curse", "common value auction", "valuation haircut", "adverse valuation", "Bayesian bid adjustment", or "over-paying in auction".
10mlb-closer-tracker
Tracks the closer role and bullpen pecking order across all 30 MLB teams — who owns the ninth-inning job today, who is next in line if the current closer falters (the handcuff), and who carries DFA or demotion risk. Emits a per-reliever `save_role_certainty` signal (0-100) and flags speculation-worthy handcuffs for waiver bids. Use when the user mentions "closer", "save role", "handcuff", "ninth inning", "bullpen depth", lost save, blown save, committee, or when the waiver analyst needs to decide whether to spend FAAB on a backup reliever. This league uses SV as one of its five pitcher categories, but SV is also the most volatile and most punt-worthy cat, so tracking should always be paired with a punt-the-cat fallback recommendation.
10category-allocation-best-response
Computes the best-response allocation of roster resources across categories in a Head-to-Head Categories matchup. Given our per-category capacity, the opponent's projected output, per-category win probabilities (from matchup-win-probability-sim), and a K-of-N winning threshold, classifies categories into pushed / contested / conceded buckets, emits per-category leverage weights for downstream lineup and streaming decisions, computes the resulting K-of-N win probability, and writes a plain-English rationale. Domain-neutral — portable to any fantasy sport with H2H Cats scoring (MLB 10-cat, NBA 9-cat, NHL 10-cat). Use when you need push/punt decisions, dominated-strategy elimination, leverage weights per cat, or best-response allocation; or when the user mentions "category allocation", "push or punt", "K of N cats", "dominated strategy elimination", "best response allocation", "Blotto fantasy", "leverage weights per cat", or "which cats to push".
10auction-first-price-shading
Computes the optimal shaded bid for a first-price sealed-bid auction given a true private value, an estimate of the number of competing bidders N, and a value-distribution assumption. Implements the `(N-1)/N` equilibrium shading rule for uniform private values, adjusts for log-normal or empirical value distributions, layers a risk-aversion adjustment, and caps output against the bidder's remaining budget. Domain-neutral auction theory reusable across fantasy sports (baseball FAAB, NBA/NHL waiver auctions), prediction-market limit sizing, sealed procurement bids, and any blind-bid context. Use when user mentions "first-price auction bid", "sealed bid shading", "(N-1)/N", "FAAB bid amount", "auction shading", "optimal bid first-price", "bid for sealed-bid", "blind bid sizing", or when downstream logic needs a principled shade factor rather than an ad-hoc heuristic.
10matchup-win-probability-sim
Computes P(we win at least K of N categories) for a head-to-head categorical matchup via Monte-Carlo simulation or Poisson-binomial approximation. Domain-neutral — works for any fantasy sport with H2H Categories scoring (MLB, NBA, NHL) or any zero-sum per-category competition. Use when you need matchup_win_probability, per_cat_win_probability, expected_cats_won, or variance_estimate; or when user mentions "matchup win probability", "head to head simulation", "Monte Carlo matchup", "Poisson binomial matchup", "P win 6 of 10", "category matchup simulation", or "weekly win probability".
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