Matchup Win Probability Simulator

Table of Contents

• Example
• Workflow
• Common Patterns
• Guardrails
• Quick Reference

Example

Scenario: Yahoo MLB 10-category H2H matchup, Week 8, threshold = 6 of 10. Categories: R, HR, RBI, SB, OBP (hitting); K, ERA, WHIP, QS, SV (pitching). ERA and WHIP are inverse (lower is better).

Inputs (remaining-week projections for both teams; mean = expected output, stddev = uncertainty):