variance-strategy-selector
Variance Strategy Selector
Table of Contents
Example
Scenario: A fantasy manager is 15% behind their opponent with 3 lineup slots left to decide this week. Losing this week eliminates them from playoff contention.
Inputs:
current_win_probability= 0.32 (heavy underdog)downside_asymmetry= 0.90 (must-win, catastrophic if lost)slots_to_decide= 3
Band classification: win_probability < 0.40 -> posture = "seek", base multiplier range 1.15-1.30.
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