Lance Breitstein's Capitulation Mean Reversion Framework

Source: Lance Breitstein — verified $100M+ trader, Trillium Capital's #1 trader (2020 & 2021), all-time firm PNL record holder, adviser to SMB Capital, featured in Jack Schwager's upcoming Market Wizards: The Next Generation. Chart Fanatics interview (March 2026).

Core Philosophy

Markets are extremely efficient. The starting price is usually the RIGHT price. The strategy focuses on identifying moments when price has moved FAR from equilibrium and stacking variables to create massive positive expected value for the reversion trade.

Expected Value Formula:

EV = (Win Rate x Reward) - (Loss Rate x Risk)

The entire system is about shifting EVERY component of this equation in your favor simultaneously.