Startup Trend Prediction

Systematic framework for analyzing historical trends to predict future opportunities. Look back 2-3 years to predict 1-2 years ahead.

Modern Best Practices (Dec 2025):

• Triangulate: require 3+ independent signals, including at least 1 primary source (standards, regulators, platform docs).
• Separate leading vs lagging indicators; don’t overfit to social/media noise.
• Add hype-cycle defenses: falsification, base rates, and adoption constraints (distribution, budgets, compliance).
• Tie trends to a decision (enter / wait / avoid) with explicit assumptions and a review cadence.

When to Use This Skill