estimate-calibrator
Originally frommathews-tom/praxis-skills
Installation
SKILL.md
Estimate Calibrator
Replaces single-point guesses with structured three-point estimates: decomposes work into atomic units, estimates best/likely/worst case for each, identifies unknowns and assumptions, calculates aggregate ranges using PERT, and assigns confidence levels with explicit rationale.
Reference Files
| File | Contents | Load When |
|---|---|---|
references/estimation-methods.md |
PERT formula, three-point estimation, Monte Carlo basics | Always |
references/unknown-categories.md |
Technical, scope, external, and organizational uncertainty types | Unknown identification |
references/calibration-tips.md |
Cognitive biases in estimation, historical calibration, buffer strategies | Always |
references/sizing-heuristics.md |
Common task size patterns, complexity indicators, reference class data | Quick sizing needed |