derisk-assumptions
Installation
SKILL.md
De-risk assumptions
A risky assumption is an open bet the vision is making. Risk is the stakes — how much the vision's success depends on the bet being true — and it does not move. This skill moves the other axis: confidence, the signed belief that the assumption actually holds, earned from evidence. You de-risk an assumption by running a spike: the cheapest piece of real work that produces evidence for or against it. Spikes run in parallel, isolated workspaces so one cannot corrupt another, and every scrap of data they produce is kept for later drill-down.
The two axes (read once)
| Field | Range | Meaning | Who moves it |
|---|---|---|---|
risk |
0.00 … 1.00 |
Stakes only — how much success depends on this being true. | The find skill. Not this skill. |
confidence |
−1.00 … +1.00 |
Signed belief it holds. + holds, − does not, magnitude = evidence strength. Born at 0.0. |
This skill. |
Outcomes stated in confidence terms: