19-ab-test-setup-global
Installation
SKILL.md
A/B Test Setup (Global)
Run experiments that produce decisions, not noise. Most "A/B tests" in marketing are underpowered, peeked-at, and badly hypothesized — meaning the team learns nothing and ships the louder variant.
For Newbies
A valid A/B test answers one question: "Did this change cause a real improvement, or am I seeing noise?"
To answer it credibly you need four things:
- A specific hypothesis with a numeric prediction
- One variable changed (everything else identical)
- Enough sample to detect the effect you care about
- Statistical significance before you call a winner (typically p < 0.05)
If any one of these is missing, you don't have an A/B test — you have a coin flip with extra steps.
Common newbie mistake: running a test for 3 days, seeing variant B 40% higher, declaring victory, and shipping. Three days is too short to absorb day-of-week effects, and small samples produce wild swings. Variant B may revert (or reverse) by day 14.