Demand Forecast Review Skill

Every unit of forecast becomes purchase orders, capacity commitments, and inventory. This skill interrogates a forecast the way a supply planner must: separate the defensible baseline from hopeful uplift, confront the forecast with its own accuracy history, hunt for hockey sticks, and register every assumption so that when the number misses, you know which belief broke.

What This Skill Produces

• A baseline vs. uplift decomposition (statistical base + named uplift layers)
• Forecast accuracy history: MAPE and bias, with what they imply for buffering
• Hockey-stick and pattern-anomaly flags
• An assumption register with owner, evidence strength, and expiry
• Consensus vs. statistical divergence flags with a burden-of-proof call
• An overall credibility verdict: plan to it / plan to it with buffers / send back

Required Inputs