forecast-premortem
Forecast Pre-Mortem
Table of Contents
- What is a Forecast Pre-Mortem?
- When to Use This Skill
- Interactive Menu
- Quick Reference
- Resource Files
What is a Forecast Pre-Mortem?
A forecast pre-mortem is a stress-testing technique where you assume your prediction has already failed and work backward to construct the history of how it failed. This reveals blind spots, tail risks, and overconfidence.
Core Principle: Invert the problem. Don't ask "Will this succeed?" Ask "It has failed - why?"
Why It Matters:
- Defeats overconfidence by forcing you to imagine failure
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