polymarket-trading

Terminology & Concepts

• Exit Plan: Automated limit sell at $0.99 placed as soon as position opens.
• Hedged Reversal: Holding both UP and DOWN positions simultaneously when trend flips.
• Midpoint Stop Loss: Market sell triggered by midpoint price dropping to/below $0.30.
• Scale-In: Adding capital to winning positions via Market Orders (FAK).
• Underdog: Side trading below $0.50. Requires >40% confidence for entry.
• Tick Size: Minimum price increment allowed for a market (e.g., 0.01 or 0.001).

Strategy Nuances

Confidence Calculation Methods (v0.5.0+)

The bot supports two confidence calculation methods for A/B testing:

Additive Method (Default):

• Directional voting system with weighted signal aggregation
• Confidence = (winning_total - (losing_total × 0.2)) × lead_lag_bonus
• Trend agreement bonus (1.1x) when Binance and Polymarket momentum align