Evaluating Trade-offs

Scope

Covers

• Turning an ambiguous “pros/cons” debate into a decision-ready trade-off evaluation
• Comparing options using all-in cost (not just dollars) and explicit opportunity cost
• Using order-of-magnitude estimates (ranges + confidence) instead of false precision
• Stress-testing decisions with thought experiments (pre-mortems, reversibility, “worse first” dips)
• Avoiding sunk-cost traps with a clean stop/continue decision rule

When to use

• “Help me evaluate this trade-off and recommend a path.”
• “Create a pros/cons that actually leads to a decision.”
• “Compare options with cost/impact ranges and key assumptions.”
• “We’re debating speed vs quality—what’s the right trade and how do we manage the dip?”
• “Should we keep investing in this project, or stop? (Sunk cost question.)”