Pipeline Forecasting

Pipeline forecasting predicts how much revenue will close in a given period based on the current state of open opportunities. The forecast is never perfect. The goal is to be consistently within 10-15% of actual results, quarter after quarter. A forecast that's off by 50% one quarter and dead-on the next is worse than one that's consistently off by 12%.

The principle: a forecast is a judgment call backed by data, not a math formula applied to CRM. Models set the floor. Human judgment sets the ceiling.

The 3 Forecasting Methods

Every forecast should use at least two of these three methods. When they diverge, the gap is where the risk lives.

Method 1: Weighted Pipeline

Multiply each opportunity's value by its probability of closing based on stage.