Hypothesis

A hypothesis is a testable prediction about how a change will affect user behavior or business outcomes. It transforms assumptions into explicit statements that can be validated or invalidated through experimentation. Well-formed hypotheses prevent teams from building features based on untested beliefs and create shared understanding of what success looks like.

When to Use

• After problem framing, before committing to a solution
• When designing experiments or A/B tests
• When team members have differing assumptions about user behavior
• Before investing significant engineering resources in a feature
• When pivoting direction and need to validate the new approach

When NOT to Use

• You are ready to design the actual A/B test (variants, sample size, duration) -> use measure-experiment-design; this skill frames what to test, not how
• The problem itself is still unframed -> use define-problem-statement first
• You want to organize many assumptions and ideas into a discovery structure -> use define-opportunity-tree
• The team needs the full business-model picture, not one testable claim -> use foundation-lean-canvas