Premortem

A premortem stress-tests a plan by assuming it has already failed and reasoning backward to explain why, then converting each cause into a mitigation, a tripwire, and a kill criterion. The shift from "what might go wrong?" to "it went wrong, why?" is what does the work: it licenses dissent, surfaces more and more specific causes than ordinary risk review, and turns vague worry into pre-committed action while you can still change course. The output is a risk register, not a discussion.

When to Use

• Before a launch, hire, investment, migration, vendor selection, or any consequential, hard-to-reverse commitment.
• When a plan has optimistic momentum and you suspect concerns are going unspoken.
• When you want risks expressed as observable signals and pre-decided responses, not a feeling of caution.
• Often after options have been compared and one has been chosen, as the last gate before committing.

When NOT to Use

• After the outcome is known. That is a postmortem, a different tool.
• For trivial or fully reversible (two-way-door) decisions. The ceremony is not worth it.
• To generate options or to choose among them. Use an ideation skill or a decision-option review; premortem is a risk tool.
• As a ritual to bless a decision already made. If the mitigations will not be acted on, skip it; a premortem nobody acts on is theater.

Instructions