release-planning

Overview

Based on "Agile Estimating and Planning" by Mike Cohn. The core insight: release dates are not commitments - they are probabilistic forecasts. Velocity is a lagging indicator that gets more reliable over time (the cone of uncertainty narrows). A good release plan gives a date range, not a single date, and explicitly buffers for unknowns. Single-date commitments made from a backlog on day one are fiction.

Workflow

Step 1: Establish velocity baseline

Ask the user for sprint velocity data. You need at least 3 sprints of history for a meaningful average.

Sprint | Story Points Completed
-------|----------------------
S-1    | [number]
S-2    | [number]
S-3    | [number]