Contract

• Input: time-series data (date + target; optional exogenous variables).
• Output: forecast plot + comparison + recommendation.
• Side effects: none.
• Dependencies: time-series data source.
• Stop condition: backtest complete; recommendation made.
• Risk: medium — forecast affects planning; requires validation.
• Boundary: designs forecasting pipeline; does not make business decisions.

Time-Series Forecasting

Build a time-series forecast — with stationarity analysis, seasonality, exogenous variables, and backtest — and recommend the best model.

Process

1. Data inspection

Plot series; check for missing values, outliers, structural breaks. Check stationarity: ADF test, KPSS test. Decompose: trend + seasonal + residual.