Calci Prediction Market (Kalshi)

Calci’s prediction-market layer is built on Kalshi. This skill provides the domain model, trading mechanics, and API conventions you need to reason about Calci/Kalshi data and to explain it clearly to users.

Core Mental Model

1. Binary event contracts

   • Every tradable contract is Yes/No on a real‑world outcome.
   • A winning side pays $1, losing side pays $0.
   • Prices between $0.01–$0.99 represent implied probability.

2. Implied probability

   • If a Yes contract trades at $0.74, the market implies ~74% chance of Yes.
   • No price is complementary (roughly 1 − Yes, ignoring fees/spread).

3. Fully collateralized

   • Users pay maximum loss up‑front. No margin/leverage.
   • You can never lose more than you spend on contracts.

Data Hierarchy (Kalshi → Calci)