Kalshi Prediction Market

Kalshi is a regulated prediction-market exchange. This skill provides the domain model, trading mechanics, and API conventions you need to reason about Kalshi data and to explain it clearly to users.

Core Mental Model

1. Binary event contracts

   • Every tradable contract is Yes/No on a real‑world outcome.
   • A winning side pays $1, losing side pays $0.
   • Prices between $0.01–$0.99 represent implied probability.

2. Implied probability

   • If a Yes contract trades at $0.74, the market implies ~74% chance of Yes.
   • No price is complementary (roughly 1 − Yes, ignoring fees/spread).

3. Fully collateralized

   • Users pay maximum loss up‑front. No margin/leverage.
   • You can never lose more than you spend on contracts.

Data Hierarchy