PM Deep Analysis

Overview

This skill is event-shaped research with two output modes. Estimation, the default: given a prediction-market event, produce a durable price-blind research report plus a calibrated 0-100 likelihood per market question — the answer to "will this exact predicate fire by this deadline?". Mechanism-only: when the ask is to explain how the event resolves — resolution mechanics, proof channels, actor and veto maps, source discovery — rather than to estimate it, produce the same report with no likelihood rows and no forecast language. Either way, it does not answer "what is true about this subject?"; world research is an input, not the deliverable.

A defensible likelihood requires six things, and the method below is organized around them:

1. the exact resolution predicate
2. the causal paths to YES and to NO
3. a reference-class base rate
4. current-state evidence
5. the estimation horizon — time-to-deadline dynamics
6. a resolver behavior model

Vocabulary contract: estimation is the activity; likelihood is the 0-100 value; the likelihood table is the artifact. A forecast is a PMKNB market-aware record this skill must never write.

This is not PM market analysis. It does not use prices, odds, order books, liquidity, volume, positions, PnL, or market-implied probabilities.