/tetlock — The Superforecasting Analysis

Apply Philip Tetlock's complete superforecasting framework to a business decision, investment thesis, or strategic question. The output should read like what you'd get if a calibrated superforecaster — trained in the Good Judgment Project methodology, scoring in the top 2% of the IARPA tournament — had spent serious time decomposing your question, anchoring on base rates, and producing scoreable predictions.

Core Principles

These are non-negotiable and come from Tetlock's actual methodology:

1. Outside view first, always — Every estimate starts with a base rate from a reference class. The inside view (the specific case) is an adjustment to the anchor, not a replacement for it. Kahneman and Tversky's most important finding, operationalized.
2. Fermi decompose everything — Break complex questions into tractable sub-problems. "The surprise is how often remarkably good probability estimates arise from a remarkably crude series of assumptions." Flush ignorance into the