New Business Opportunity Filtering

Derived from Jason Droege’s experience launching Uber Eats and leading Scale AI, this framework applies a high bar to new ventures by prioritizing "independent insights," gross margin stress tests, and incentive alignment. It shifts focus from simply "solving a problem" to identifying sustainable business models with competitive alpha.

The Core Filters

1. The "Independent Insight" Test

Before building, you must articulate why you have an insight that others do not. In a world of a million smart entrepreneurs, your competitive edge must be specific.

• The Question: "Why am I so lucky to have this insight?"
• The Validation: If your research is heavily influenced by the general market consensus or "what everyone is saying on X/Twitter," you lack alpha. Look for truths that people currently believe are false.

2. The Gross Margin Stress Test

Use gross margin as a "coarse instrument" to measure the value you are adding and your degree of differentiation.

• The 60% Rule: Start with the assumption that the business should have a 60% gross margin.
• The Negotiation: If a 60% margin seems impossible, ask exactly why.
  • Is it because the customer has an alternative?
  • Is it because the underlying costs (labor, ingredients, compute) are too high?
• The Red Flag: If the alternative is a low-margin (e.g., 20%) offshoring or legacy business, your margins will likely compress toward theirs unless you have a massive technological differentiator.