Assumption Map

Surface and prioritize the riskiest assumptions before building anything. Every startup is a bundle of assumptions — this skill identifies which ones are load-bearing and which would be fatal if wrong.

Input Dependencies

Read from ./founder-outputs/ before proceeding:

• startup-canvas-output.md — business model assumptions (problems, UVP, pricing, channels)
• market-size-output.md — market assumptions (TAM/SAM/SOM, data confidence)
• customer-archetype-output.md — customer assumptions (if available)
• pressure-test-output.md — demand assumptions (if available)

If startup-canvas-output.md is missing, tell the user to run /startup-canvas first — assumption mapping without a business model is guesswork.

Frameworks

• Continuous Discovery Habits (Torres) — Opportunity Solution Trees and assumption mapping methodology. Categorize assumptions, rate them on impact and uncertainty, and prioritize the highest-risk ones for testing first. The riskiest assumption is the one that kills the business if wrong AND that has the least evidence supporting it.

Methodology