Hypothesis Driven 80/20

Use $ARGUMENTS as initial context.

When to use this skill

• Ambiguous problems that need fast direction before full analysis.
• Prioritizing limited team capacity across competing hypotheses.
• Designing a test plan with clear stop or continue criteria.
• Converting broad strategic questions into measurable experiments.

Required inputs

• Governing business question and target metric.
• Time horizon and decision deadline.
• Data constraints and available analysis bandwidth.

Workflow

1. Define one decision question and explicit success metric.
2. Generate 3-7 falsifiable hypotheses using strict format.
3. For each hypothesis define expected signal, disconfirming signal, and kill threshold.