Hypothesis Driven 80/20

Use $ARGUMENTS as initial context.

When to use this skill

• Ambiguous problems that need fast direction before full analysis.
• Prioritizing limited team capacity across competing hypotheses.
• Designing a test plan with clear stop or continue criteria.
• Converting broad strategic questions into measurable experiments.

When not to use this skill

• Do not use it to create a broad issue tree, a market inventory, or a portfolio allocation without a testable decision question.
• Do not label opinions as hypotheses when no measurable disconfirming signal is possible.

Required inputs

• Governing business question and target metric.
• Time horizon and decision deadline.
• Data constraints and available analysis bandwidth.
• Current baseline, unit of analysis, and minimum reliable signal.