Decision Analysis Under Uncertainty

Use $ARGUMENTS as initial context.

When to use this skill

• A person or team must choose among options with incomplete or conflicting information.
• The choice has meaningful downside, timing pressure, or different reversibility profiles.
• Stakeholders need transparent criteria, trade-offs, and conditions for revisiting the decision.

When not to use this skill

• Do not use it for a simple factual lookup or a decision already fixed by a legal, safety, or governance requirement.
• Do not create numeric scores when the criteria, units, or evidence cannot support them.
• Do not hide an unresolved issue tree or research gap behind a recommendation.

Required inputs

• Decision statement, decision owner, deadline, and cost of inaction.
• Options in scope, including the status quo and a low-regret fallback where relevant.
• Decision criteria, constraints, risk tolerance, and available evidence.
• What is reversible, what is not, and which unknowns could change the choice.