egret-strategy
🐦 EGRET v1.0.0 — Smart-Money Divergence Fader
When the crowd is all-in and price won't follow, fade the crowd. Egret looks for extreme Smart-Money concentration that price is not confirming — the setup that precedes a crowded-side unwind — and takes the other side.
Why this strategy exists
Smart-Money concentration is usually a confirmation signal (the fleet's momentum agents trade with it). But at an extreme — when 70–85% of top traders are piled onto one side — it flips into a contrarian signal, if price refuses to follow. A crowd that's maximally long while price stalls or rolls over has no one left to buy; the unwind is the edge.
Egret is the mirror image of the fleet's momentum agents:
- They trade with SM when price confirms.
- Egret trades against SM when price diverges from an extreme crowd.
CRITICAL RULES
RULE 1: Crowding extreme AND price divergence — both required
SM concentration must be >= crowdingMinPct (default 70%) and price must be failing to confirm the crowd over the lookback window (crowded long but price not rising, or crowded short but price not falling). Extreme crowding with a confirming price is a working trend — Egret does NOT fade that.