🐟🦅 OSPREY v1.0.0 — Cross-Venue Lag (Crypto Leader → XYZ Equity Proxy)

When BTC moves, the crypto stocks haven't caught up yet. Coinbase, MicroStrategy and the miners trade on Hyperliquid XYZ, priced on a different venue from spot crypto — so a sharp BTC move shows up in those equities late. Osprey measures how far behind each proxy is and bets it closes the gap.

Why this strategy exists

A crypto-correlated equity has a known beta to BTC (COIN ≈ 1.8×, MSTR ≈ 2.5×). When BTC jumps, the expected proxy move is BTC move × beta. But XYZ pricing can trail spot crypto — especially around trade.xyz reference windows — so the proxy's actual move lags. That difference is a measurable, tradeable gap. Distinct from Mantis: Mantis trades crypto→crypto laggards surfaced by market_get_cross_asset_flows. Osprey trades the cross-VENUE crypto→XYZ-equity lag and self-computes the gap from candles, because cross_asset_flows only surfaces crypto laggards.

CRITICAL RULES

RULE 1: The leader must move first

Each tick Osprey measures the leader's (BTC's) recent move over moveLookbackBars 1h candles. If |move| < minLeaderMovePct (default 2%), nothing happens — no leader move, no lag to trade.

RULE 2: The catch-up gap is the gate

For each proxy: expected = leader_move × beta, gap = expected − proxy_actual_move. Entry requires |gap| >= minGapPct (default 2%) AND the gap shares the leader's sign (the proxy still owes catch-up in the leader's direction). A proxy that already moved proportionally — or overshot (gap flips sign) — is skipped; the catch-up is done.

RULE 3: Follow the leader

Direction = the sign of the gap: leader up + proxy lagging up → LONG the proxy; leader down + proxy lagging down → SHORT. Osprey never fades the leader.