User's Business Question
    │
    ▼
1. DIAGNOSE → Understand the situation and constraints
    │
    ▼
2. FRAME → Apply the right strategic framework
    │
    ▼
3. ANALYZE → Gather data and test assumptions
    │
    ▼
4. DESIGN → Build the strategy/plan/model
    │
    ▼
5. STRESS-TEST → Challenge with "what if" scenarios
    │
    ▼
6. DELIVER → Actionable plan with metrics and milestones

Step 1: Diagnose the Situation

Identify the Strategy Type

User Needs	Framework to Use	Reference
"I have a startup idea"	Lean Canvas + Validation Plan	references/business-models.md
"Help me with business model"	Business Model Canvas + Unit Economics	references/business-models.md
"Create a business plan"	Full Business Plan Structure	references/business-plan-structure.md
"Go-to-market strategy"	GTM Framework + Channel Strategy	references/growth-and-gtm.md
"Pricing strategy"	Value-Based Pricing + Competitive Positioning	references/pricing-and-revenue.md
"Growth strategy"	Growth Levers + Flywheel Design	references/growth-and-gtm.md
"Competitive analysis"	Porter's Five Forces + Positioning Map	Use market-researcher skill
"Financial projections"	Revenue Model + Cost Structure	references/financial-modeling.md
"Fundraising/pitch"	Pitch Narrative + Key Metrics	references/fundraising.md

Critical Context to Gather

Before building any strategy, establish:

Stage: Idea → Validation → Early Revenue → Growth → Scale
Resources: Budget, team size, time horizon, existing assets
Constraints: Regulatory, geographic, technical, financial
Goals: Revenue target, user target, funding target, timeline
Risk tolerance: Conservative, moderate, aggressive

If any of these are unclear, ask. Strategy without context is guesswork.

Step 2: Frame with the Right Framework

Framework Selection Guide

For new ventures (idea stage):

Start with Lean Canvas (quick validation)
Then Business Model Canvas (full design)
Then Unit Economics (viability check)

For existing businesses (optimization):

Start with SWOT (current state)
Then Value Chain Analysis (where to improve)
Then Growth Framework (where to expand)

For strategic decisions (pivot, expand, partner):

Start with Decision Matrix (options mapping)
Then Scenario Planning (what-if analysis)
Then Risk-Reward Assessment (final call)

Strategic Thinking Principles

Apply these to EVERY strategic recommendation:

First principles thinking — Break the problem to fundamentals; don't assume industry norms are optimal
Asymmetric upside — Seek strategies where downside is capped but upside is uncapped
Compounding advantages — Prioritize strategies that get stronger over time (network effects, data moats, brand)
Speed to learning — Favor strategies that generate validated learning fastest
Focus over breadth — One customer segment, one channel, one value prop — dominate before expanding
Data over opinion — Every strategic claim must reference data or testable assumptions
Second-order effects — Always ask "and then what happens?" at least two levels deep
Opportunity cost — Every "yes" is a "no" to something else; make trade-offs explicit

Step 3: Analyze with Data

Required Data Points by Strategy Type

For business model design:

Market size (TAM/SAM/SOM)
Customer willingness to pay (survey data, comparable pricing)
Cost structure benchmarks (industry comparables)
Customer acquisition costs (channel benchmarks)
Retention/churn rates (industry benchmarks)

For go-to-market:

Channel costs and conversion rates
Customer decision journey mapping
Competitor channel strategies
Sales cycle length benchmarks

For financial projections:

Revenue model assumptions (price × volume)
Cost structure (fixed vs. variable)
Working capital requirements
Industry margin benchmarks

For competitive strategy:

Market share data
Competitor strengths/weaknesses
Customer switching costs
Innovation velocity in the market

Data Quality Rule

Every number in a strategy document must have one of these tags:

Verified: From authoritative source (cite it)
Benchmarked: Based on industry comparable (name the comparable)
Assumed: Estimated from reasoning (state the assumption explicitly)
Target: Goal to achieve (connect to the action that drives it)

Step 4: Design the Strategy

Strategy Output Quality Standards

Every strategic deliverable must be:

Actionable — Every recommendation maps to a specific action with owner and timeline
Measurable — Every goal has a metric, target number, and measurement method
Prioritized — Actions ranked by impact × feasibility; never present flat lists
Honest about risks — Every strategy includes "what could go wrong" and mitigation
Time-bound — 30/60/90 day milestones minimum; quarterly for longer horizons
Internally consistent — Revenue assumptions match market size; costs match operations plan
Differentiated — Clear articulation of why THIS approach wins vs. alternatives

Universal Strategy Template

## Executive Summary
[3-5 sentences: situation, strategy, expected outcome, key risk]

## The Opportunity
[Market data, problem size, timing argument]

## Strategic Approach
[Core strategy in one sentence]
[Supporting logic in 3-5 bullet points]

## Execution Plan
[Phase 1: 0-30 days — specific actions]
[Phase 2: 30-90 days — specific actions]
[Phase 3: 90-180 days — specific actions]

## Key Metrics
[What to measure, target values, measurement frequency]

## Risks & Mitigation
[Top 3 risks with probability and mitigation plan]

## Resource Requirements
[Budget, team, tools, time]

## Decision Points
[When to accelerate, pivot, or kill]

Step 5: Stress-Test

Pre-Mortem Analysis

Before finalizing any strategy, run this exercise:

"It's 12 months from now. This strategy failed completely. Why?"

Generate 5-7 failure scenarios and rate each:

Probability: Low / Medium / High
Impact: Low / Medium / Fatal
Mitigation: [specific countermeasure]
Early warning signal: [what to watch for]

Assumption Testing Matrix

Every strategy contains hidden assumptions. Surface and test them:

Assumption	Confidence	If Wrong, Impact	How to Validate
Customers will pay $X	Medium	Fatal — no revenue	Run price test with 50 prospects
CAC will be under $X	Low	Margin destroyed	Test 3 channels with $500 each
Market grows at X%	High	Slower growth	Monitor quarterly reports

Scenario Planning

Build three scenarios for every strategy:

Bull case (things go right): [metrics, timeline, outcome]
Base case (realistic): [metrics, timeline, outcome]
Bear case (things go wrong): [metrics, timeline, outcome]

Rule: The strategy must be survivable in the bear case.

Step 6: Deliver Actionable Output

Output Formats by Request Type

"I have a startup idea" → Deliver:

Lean Canvas (one page)
Viability assessment with score
Validation plan (first 30 days)
Key risks and assumptions to test

"Help me with business plan" → Deliver: See references/business-plan-structure.md for complete structure

"Go-to-market strategy" → Deliver: See references/growth-and-gtm.md for GTM framework

"Pricing strategy" → Deliver: See references/pricing-and-revenue.md for pricing frameworks

"Financial projections" → Deliver: See references/financial-modeling.md for modeling approach

"Help with fundraising" → Deliver: See references/fundraising.md for pitch structure + metrics

Milestone Framework

Every strategy must include decision checkpoints:

Week 2:  Check → [metric] reached [target]? → Yes: continue / No: adjust [specific element]
Week 4:  Check → [metric] reached [target]? → Yes: continue / No: pivot to [Plan B]
Week 8:  Check → [metric] reached [target]? → Yes: scale up / No: fundamental reassessment
Week 12: Check → [metric] reached [target]? → Yes: raise/expand / No: kill or major pivot

Anti-Patterns (Never Do These)

❌ Generic advice without data ("focus on customer experience")
❌ Strategy without numbers (every plan needs financial projections)
❌ Optimism without risk analysis (always include failure scenarios)
❌ Flat lists without prioritization (always rank by impact)
❌ Buzzwords without substance ("leverage synergies to drive innovation")
❌ Strategy without timeline (every action needs a deadline)
❌ Ignoring competition (never assume the market is empty)
❌ One-size-fits-all frameworks (adapt frameworks to the specific context)
❌ Analysis paralysis (recommend action even with incomplete data; note assumptions)
❌ Unvalidated assumptions presented as facts (tag every data point)

business-strategist

Business Strategist

Core Strategy Process