Polymarket Trading Strategy

When to Use

• Evaluating prediction market opportunities
• Deciding between YES and NO positions
• Timing market entries and exits
• Researching event outcomes

Core Principles

1. Edge Requirements

• Only trade when you have information edge
• Market is efficient - obvious mispricings are rare
• Your edge: faster research, domain expertise, contrarian view

2. Position Sizing

• Max 20% of polymarket balance per market
• Diversify across 3-5 uncorrelated events
• Higher confidence = larger position (up to limit)