Step 1: Assess — get the big picture

curl -s "https://skill.capduck.com/iran"

The briefing contains situation assessment (tension 1-10, direction, key deltas), perspective summaries (with evidence strength), active threads (with signals and drill-down hints), and top events (impact >= 8, last 24h). Each section tells you where to look next.

Step 2: Investigate — follow the scent

A thread mentions linked events -> /events?category=CONFLICT to read the evidence chain
A claim has weak evidence -> /posts?source_type=osint to see if OSINT confirms
Mainstream narrative unclear -> /news?region=us to see how US outlets frame it
A thread links to prediction markets -> /polymarket for probability and trend
Trump posted about Iran -> /trump?tags=iran-war to see his exact words

Step 3: Cross-reference — triangulate

Compare official sources vs OSINT vs mainstream: /posts?source_type=state_media vs osint vs /news
Use /notable to understand who a source is and which camp they belong to
Use /entities?q=name to check credibility of an unfamiliar source
Check source_count in events — 1 source = rumor, 5+ sources = confirmed
Use /signals?ids=id1,id2 to batch-lookup raw data for thread signals

Step 4: Project — what happens next

Look at Watch items in Active Threads: likelihood direction (rising/stable/falling), next milestones, decision makers
Check /polymarket for market-implied probabilities and trend direction
When polymarket diverges from briefing assessment, one of them is wrong — that's where investigation value is highest

Iran Endpoints

All paths below are relative to https://skill.capduck.com.

`/{topic}` — Briefing (default)

AI-generated situation briefing, updated hourly. Contains:

Situation Assessment — tension level (1-10), direction, 24h comparison, key deltas
Perspective Summaries — 4 viewpoints with evidence strength (strong/moderate/weak)
Active Threads — 3-5 issue threads with linked signals, watch items, polymarket refs
Top Events — impact >= 8 from last 24h, with source attribution

`/{topic}/events` — Event timeline

Structured events with impact scoring and multi-source attribution.

Param	Description	Default
`impact`	Minimum impact score (1-10)	0
`category`	CONFLICT, DIPLOMACY, POLITICS, ECONOMY, PROTESTS	all
`hours`	Rolling window in hours	48
`since`	ISO 8601 timestamp (overrides hours)	—
`limit`	Max results	50

Each event includes: id, impact, confidence, sentiment, category, title / title_zh, summary / summary_zh, source_details[] (with display_name, entity_slug, platform, url), source_count, published_at.

`/{topic}/posts` — Social feed

Unified Twitter + Telegram posts with entity enrichment.

Param	Description	Default
`source_type`	news_agency, state_media, osint, gov_military, journalist, think_tank, other	all
`category`	Author category text filter	all
`platform`	twitter, telegram	all
`event`	Event UUID -> linked posts via source URLs	—
`since`	ISO 8601 timestamp	48h ago
`limit`	Max results	30

`/{topic}/news` — Mainstream media

Coverage from 18+ major outlets (Reuters, AP, CNN, NYT, Bloomberg, Guardian, BBC, Al Jazeera, etc.).

Param	Description	Default
`region`	intl, us, mideast, israel, persian, asia, russia, china, other	all
`language`	en, fa	all
`event`	Event UUID -> linked articles	—
`since`	ISO 8601 timestamp	48h ago
`limit`	Max results	30

`/{topic}/polymarket` — Prediction markets

Current probabilities, trend direction, and historical price ranges for Iran-related prediction markets.

Each condition includes: label/label_zh, yes_price (0-1), trend arrow with % change, historical min-max range.

`/{topic}/notable` — Curated key entities

~90 curated key sources grouped by role:

Group	What it represents
Iran Official	Khamenei.ir, IRNA, Fars, Tasnim — the regime's voice
Israel & Military	IDF, Netanyahu, Haaretz, Jerusalem Post — Israeli perspective
US Government	State Dept, CENTCOM, White House, Trump — US policy signals
International Organizations	IAEA, NATO, UN — multilateral stance
Key Media — Wire & Global	Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, NYT, Guardian — baseline narrative
Key Media — Regional & Specialist	Iran International, Al-Monitor, Bellingcat — specialist depth
OSINT & Prediction	Sentdefender, OSINT613, Polymarket — real-time ground truth
Think Tanks	Atlantic Council, Brookings, CFR — analytical framing
Key Activists & Opposition	Masih Alinejad, Reza Pahlavi, NCRI — diaspora/opposition voice

`/{topic}/entities` — Full source directory

800+ tracked entities. Also accessible via alias /sources.

Param	Description	Default
`category`	Filter by entity category	all
`q`	Text search (name + description)	—
`limit`	Max results	100

Trump Endpoint

/trump — Full Trump Truth Social feed, auto-tagged by topic.

Param	Description	Default
`tags`	Comma-separated topic filter (iran-war, energy, trade, china, executive-order, etc.)	all
`limit`	Max results	50 (max: 200)
`since`	ISO 8601 or Unix timestamp	—
`cursor`	Pagination cursor (from `meta.next_cursor`)	—
`lang`	zh or en	zh
`offset`	Pagination offset	0

Each post includes: id, author_name, author_handle, content (EN), content_zh, tags[], source_url, platform (truth-social), media_url, published_at.

Key dictionaries

Event category: CONFLICT · DIPLOMACY · POLITICS · ECONOMY · PROTESTS

Event sentiment: NEGATIVE · POSITIVE · NEUTRAL · MIXED

source_type (on posts): news_agency · state_media · osint · gov_military · journalist · think_tank · other

News region: intl · us · mideast · israel · persian · asia · russia · china · other

Post platform: twitter · telegram · truth-social (Trump only)

Trump tags: iran-war · energy · trade · china · executive-order · (auto-generated, non-exhaustive)

Entity relationships

Briefing -> thread.signals[].id -> Event ID -> /posts?event={id} or /news?event={id}
Event -> source_details[].entity_slug -> /entities or /notable
Post -> source_type (mapped from author_category)
Thread -> polymarket_ref -> /polymarket
Trump -> tags[] -> cross-reference with /events or /posts

Key investigation paths:

Briefing -> Thread -> Event -> Sources -> Entity: "This thread claims X" -> check linked events -> how many sources? -> who are they? -> what camp?
Event -> Posts/News: use /posts?event={id} or /news?event={id} to find original content linked to a specific event
Thread -> Polymarket: thread has polymarket_ref -> check /polymarket -> does market probability align with AI assessment?
Weak evidence -> Cross-reference: claim has weak evidence -> check /news for mainstream coverage -> check /posts?source_type=osint -> if neither confirms, flag as unverified
Trump signal -> Iran impact: /trump?tags=iran-war -> check if events corroborate -> /events?category=DIPLOMACY -> assess real impact vs rhetoric

Usage scenarios

"What's the latest on Iran?" — Call /iran -> summarize situation assessment + top 2-3 threads. Keep it under 300 words. Lead with tension level and direction.

"What did Trump just say about Iran?" — Call /trump?tags=iran-war&limit=5 -> then cross-check /events?category=DIPLOMACY&hours=6 to see if rhetoric matches real developments.

"Is this source credible?" — Call /notable first (fast, curated). If not found, fall back to /entities?q=name. Report which camp they belong to and their category.

"What are the markets saying?" — Call /polymarket -> compare market-implied probability with briefing's thread assessment. Flag divergences explicitly.

"Deep dive on a specific event" — Get event ID from briefing or /events -> call /posts?event={id} and /news?event={id} -> triangulate source count and source types.

Output guidelines

Lead with judgment, then evidence. Don't dump raw data — synthesize first, cite after.
Mark confidence. Use "confirmed (N sources)" / "reported but unverified (single source)" / "rumor" based on source_count.
Flag weak evidence. If a claim has only 1 source or comes from entertainment/social accounts, say so explicitly.
Keep it concise. Default to 200-400 words unless the user asks for detail.
Bilingual when helpful. Key terms and quotes can include both English and Chinese where the data provides translations.
Never present AI analysis as fact. The briefing is AI-generated — frame it as "the briefing assesses..." not "the situation is...".

Key principle

The briefing is the map. The other endpoints are the territory. Don't dump all data on the user — use the briefing to identify what matters, investigate only what's relevant, and synthesize a judgment.

Notes

Data from iranmonitor.org (800+ sources), Polymarket CLOB API, Truth Social
AI analysis hourly, data feeds every 5 minutes
All responses are Markdown with Chinese translations where available
48-hour rolling data window with deduplication by event/post ID
Trump feed: auto-tagged by topic, bilingual (EN + ZH)

iran-briefing

Capduck Intelligence — Decision Support Skill

When to use

Base URL

How to think — the decision loop